Compare and contrast forecasting methods (e.g. seasonal, Delphi, technological, time series). Explain how a ‘Cable TV Company’ uses one or more of these methods to forecast demand under conditions of uncertainty. Please do not use the short answer method; use the long answer method instead. Thank you.
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RESPONSE:
- Delphi Forecasting
Delphi Analysis is used in the decision making process, in particular in forecasting. Several “experts” sit together and try to compromise on something upon which they cannot agree. In fact, the Delphi procedure is designed for the systematic solicitation of expert opinion.
BASIC IDEA: many things can influence Opinions in-group settings, including the dominant positions of some participants, personal magnetism, “alleged expertise”, and fringe opinions. Many times, this hurts the ability to have an unbiased forecast provided by other judgmental techniques (in particular, the Jury of Executive Opinion). The Delphi method attempts to lessen these potential biases when making judgmental forecasts (http://www.marketingprofs.com/Tutorials/Forecast/judgmentmodels2.asp).
PROCEDURE: a “Coordinator” handles this procedure
- Panel of “experts” selected
- Initial set of questions sent to all participants
For example, ask them for sale and/or revenue estimates, likelihood that these estimates will be realized, minimum and maximum estimates + reasons for these estimates - The coordinator then tabulates the results (i.e., expected or average sales, etc.)
- Results are then returned to each participant along with anonymous statements
- Continues until little or no change occurs (http://www.marketingprofs.com/Tutorials/Forecast/judgmentmodels2.asp).
EXAMPLE: For the same information services company in the previous example, mainframe computer forecasting using the Delphi method would be conducted by having the Service director (1) ask all participants to anonymously submit forecast estimates, (2) tabulate the results, (3) return these tabulated results to the participants, telling them to what extent there was general consensus, and asking them to state their reasons for any widely divergent estimates they had made and resubmit an updated anonymous forecast estimate, (4) cycle through stages (2)-(4) until a general consensus emerges (http://www.marketingprofs.com/Tutorials/Forecast/judgmentmodels2.asp).
COMMENTS: Benefits to this approach:
? Eliminates need for group meetings
? Alleviates some of the bias inherent in group meetings
? Participants can change their minds anonymously
Weaknesses:
? Can take a lot of time to reach consensus
? Participants may drop out
(Source: http://www.marketingprofs.com/Tutorials/Forecast/judgmentmodels2.asp)
The conventional Delphi study proceeds as follows. A questionnaire designed by a monitor team is sent to a select group of experts. After the responses are summarized, the results are sent back to the respondents who have the opportunity to re-evaluate their original answers, based upon the responses of the group. By incorporating a second and sometimes third round of questionnaires, the respondents have the opportunity to defend their original answers or change their position to agree with the majority of respondents (http://www.hfac.uh.edu/MediaFutures/forecasting.html).
The Delphi technique, therefore, is a method of obtaining …
