GB 513 Unit 5 Assignment

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Question 1

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Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Compute MAD and MSE.

Period Value Forecast Error

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Question 2

202— — 191 202
173 192
169 181

171 174 175 172 182 174 196 179 204 189 219 198 227 211

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and nondurable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the United States over a 13-year period ($ billion).

1. Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearmovingaverage.
2. Usethesedatatodevelopforecastsfortheyears6through13usinga5-yearweighted moving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.
3. Compute the errors of the forecasts in parts (a) and (b) and then the MAD. Which forecast is better?
4. 1 2,512.7
5. 2 2,739.2
6. 3 2,874.9
7. 4 2,934.1
8. 5 2,865.7
9. 6 2,978.5
10. 7 3,092.4
11. 8 3,356.8
12. 9 3,607.6
13. 10 3,749.3
14. 11 3,952.0
15. 12 3,949.0
16. 13 4,137.0

Question 3

The “Economic Report to the President of the United States” included data on the amounts of manufacturers’ new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21-year period. Use Excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for these data. Use a linear model and then try a quadratic model. How well does either model fit the data?

Year Total Number of New Orders

1. 1 55,022
2. 2 55,921
3. 3 64,1 82
4. 4 76,003
5. 5 87,327
6. 6 85,139
7. 8 115,109
8. 9 131,629
9. 10 147,604
10. 11 156,359
11. 12 168,025
12. 13 162,140
13. 14 175,451
14. 15 192,879
15. 16 195,706
16. 17 195,204
17. 18 209,389
18. 19 227,025
19. 20 240,758
20. 21 243,643

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